Olympic Preview – Crunch Time

Friday is semi final day in the Olympic Hockey tournament, the pressure is cranked from here on in. Looking at the Semi final line up and its fair to say one or two teams weren’t expected to get this far. Overwhelming favourite (even more so now, with no Sweden and Russia) Team Canada take on the underdog yet dangerous Slovakia side while the overachieving young Americans take on the won’t- go-away Scandinavians, Finland.  We take a look at both semis and offer keys to the game.

USA – Finland

As mentioned in our review of the quarter finals, this game promises to be a war of attrition. Both teams boast great goaltending with Ryan Miller for the USA and Miikka Kipprusoff for Finland being incredibly stingy all tournament long. Miller’s most generous outing was giving up 3 goals to the powerhouse Canadians but he still stopped 42 shots and was incredible in stealing the game for the US. Finland on the other hand has ‘Kipper’ in top form as at no point through the tournament has he looked shaky.

Neither team give up easy goals, both teams have received balanced scoring so far, both teams have strengths in special teams so this game seems to be a very even affair. Throughout the tournament so far USA have received goals from all departments. Their checking unit led by a resurgent Chris Drury (2 goals) have chipped in, their key blue liner Brian Rafalski leads the team with four goals and all in all USA have received goals from ten different players so far this tournament. Apparently they didn’t have depth. What may be the best news for Team USA however was the ‘arrival’ of forward Zach Parise in the quarter final. With no goals prior to the game Parise scored both goals and was a thorn in the side of the Swiss all game. Parise looked much more like his NHL self and that can only bode well in the game against Finland.

Finland apparently, much like the US, has no depth or scoring. However the stats from the group stage speak volumes. Five goals in their first game (five different scorers and two powerplay goals) and five goals in their second game (three different scorers and four power play goals) proved the Fins have good special teams with 6 power play goals and balanced and consistent scoring with ten goals and a spread of scorers. Despite their shutout loss to the Swedes in the group stage its Finland who remain while Sweden is on its way back to Europe.

Keys to the game:  Goaltending. It’s easy to say but when you have two goalies as hot as Miller and Kipprusoff it’s always going to come down to the goal tending. In terms of scoring USA will hope for Parise and their top forwards to make an impact while Finland will hope to continue to get unexpected scoring from the likes of pest Jaarko Ruutu. Olli Jokinen and Nicklas Hagman will be expected to contribute if the Fins are to progress.  

Prediction: USA 2 – Finland 1. It will be joy for the young Americans who edge a close, low scoring game and progress to their second final in 12 years.

 Canada – Slovakia

Let’s hope the Slovaks aren’t expecting too much crowd support in this one. Essential to any kind of Slovakian upset will be the Europeans not wilting under the tremendous noise and home support the Canadians will receive. Many of the Slovaks will never have experienced an atmosphere like they will in Vancouver on Friday.

Team Canada is perhaps hitting form at just the right time. 8 against a weak German side was followed up by 7 against a strong Russian side. However a narrow shootout victory over Switzerland and a loss to the US show that Canada can be beaten. Which Canada will urn up on Friday?

Looking at Canada’s side and its hard to see a weakness. The goaltending has been stabilized since home town hero Roberto Luongo was anointed the permanent starter and the defence has looked stronger since youngsters and first time Olympians Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith took on the bulk of the load on the back end.  It speaks volumes of their development that a 26 year old (Keith) and a 20 year old (Doughty) led the team in ice time against the dangerous Russians considering the Canadian blue line also features star players such as Dan Boyle, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer. Duncan Keith was especially strong against the Russians with 2 assists and a +2 rating.

And then we come to the forwards. The best thing to happen to the Canadian team was the loss to America. Since then the team have played like they are finally aware that an entire country is expecting and the scoring hasn’t just been one line either. Ryan Getzlaf was excellent against the Russians with 3 points (1+2) while club mate Corey Perry (2 goals) also made the most of his limited time. Given the fact they combined for less than 20 minutes on the ice the Getzlaf Perry combo is starting to prove effective. Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash and Mike Richards have all contributed at various times and will need to play at a high level in the semi final. Nash in particular will need to contribute more. However it’s the top dogs and playmakers that will need to keep producing for Canada’s snipers if they’re going to force their game on Slovakia. Sid Crosby and Joe Thornton were relatively ineffective against the Russians and both will need to play well as Slovakia boasts a goalie in a rich vein of form in Jaroslav Halak.

Slovakia does stand a chance. A lot has and will continue to be written about Canada’s depth, their top end talent, the home advantage etc. but Slovakia has the reigning NHL Norris trophy winner in Zdeno Chara and in the two Marian’s Gaborik and Hossa they possess two of the NHL’s very best snipers. Gaborik (near the NHL lead for goals and points) in particular has started to play better following an injury and with veteran Pavol Demitra playing effectively the Slovaks have one particularly excellent line that the Canadians will have to pay 100% attention to. They may not possess the depth Canada does (no team can match them for depth) but Slovakia don’t rely purely on their ‘big three’ and goalie Halak. NHL veterans such as Lubomir Visnovsky, Richard Zednik, Miroslav Satan, Michal Handzus, Tomas Kopecky and the solid Andrej Meszaros (among others) prove Slovakia have a very strong core and evidence that taking care of just the top unit wont cut it for Canada. It does all begin and end in goal for Slovakia though. If they can’t keep Canada out they have no hope so the red hot Jaroslav Halak will need to keep up his great play and hope he returns to Montreal as public enemy number one. If he can keep the Slovaks in the game then Gaborik and co. may just have enough at their disposal to spring a major surprise.

Keys to the game: For Slovakia its goaltending first and foremost and discipline. They can’t allow the star studded Canadians to set up shop on the powerplay and build pressure and momentum. The longer the game is close the better it is for Slovakia. For Canada this game begins and ends with Sidney Crosby. Not a brave call to make but if he’s on his game and finds his wingers on a regular basis the Slovaks may have a tough time defending the deep Canadians.

 Prediction: Canada 4 –Slovakia 2.  Slovakia will stay in it for the first half but Canada’s talent and home support will give them the extra as the game progresses. Another dream Canada –USA final is on the cards. How will the atmosphere be in that one if it happens?!