So what can we make of the Ottawa Senators and their recent scorching hot run? It seems unfair to compare them to the Washington Capitals just because both sides had their great streaks. After all, Ottawa don’t have the luxury of sending Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green and co. on the ice.
It’s precisely here (the roster) where it becomes tricky in determining what to expect from the Ottawa Senators following the Olympic break and how they got here in the first place. Ottawa have one player (Captain Daniel Alfredsson) in the top 40 in scoring, sitting in at #39. In comparison, the Capitals have four in the top 20. So how are the Senators so dangerous right now? Balance.
For years the Canadian and Ottawa media complained the Senators were too top heavy, that all the scoring was on the top line and they were easy to defend against. Then after the summer saga that saw top sniper Dany Heatley sent to the San Jose Sharks that same media expected the ‘Sens’ to score even less. Well the media couldn’t have been more wrong. Ottawa has five players with 15 goals or more and they have eight players with 10 goals or more. Consider role players like Nick Foligno and Peter Regin sitting on 8 and 9 goals respectively and you have almost half the roster likely to end the season with 10 goals or more. The headline players (Heatley, prior to that Marian Hossa, Zdeno Chara etc…) may be getting moved out of Ottawa but it’s not affecting the scoring adversely. Only eight teams in the league have scored more than the Senators.
So can they keep up this balance and their current run? Ironically a lot will rest on a few pairs of shoulders. Their scoring leader Alfredsson was not exactly lighting up the league prior to the Olympic break with 2 points in his previous 6 games. The key piece to the Heatley trade, Milan Michalek was on course for only 39 points and the resurgent Mike Fisher had only 1 point in his past 5 games. So Ottawa have key players throughout the line up that can give more. This will be crucial when the games get more important as better play from the top players will take the pressure off the role players.
More importantly than the above trio of forwards may be the health and recent play of one time elite center Jason Spezza. Correctly overlooked for Olympic duty Spezza has recently looked more like his old self, playing extremely well during the Sens run. His presence and threat on the top line is crucial to any long term success the Sens will have. An on song Spezza gives the likes of newly acquired Matt Cullen and veteran Alex Kovalev more space and better match ups to take advantage of Ottawa’s new found depth. Taking it one step further and perhaps even more crucial to the club’s success will be the play in net. No one expected youngster Brian Elliot to outplay Pascal LeClaire and take the starting job this year. But he has, and has given the Canadian Capital’s team a solid presence they have lacked since Ray Emery led the club to the Cup Finals back in 2007.
So what counts against the Sens keeping their play going? They sit comfortably on top of the Northeast division, are well set for a top 3 seed yet they have a minus goal differential. While the free scoring Capitals have scored 70(!) more than they have conceded even New Jersey and Buffalo have better differentials than Ottawa. In fact no current playoff team in either conference (despite Brian Elliot’s strong play) has conceded more than Ottawa’s 179. This may be an area GM Brian Murray looks to address prior to the deadline, in addition to his acquisition of center Matt Cullen.
Ottawa have a unique opportunity to go deep in the playoffs as this season the Eastern Conference is top heavy and relatively weak. What do they need to do to be a contender this year? Better defensive play and keep their balanced scoring coming. It sounds so simple on paper.
My main sports interests are ice hockey and American football as well as 'soccer' (football?!).